{"id":65495,"date":"2024-10-17T14:55:21","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T14:55:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ferabrajan.com\/portal\/?p=65495"},"modified":"2024-10-17T14:55:40","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T14:55:40","slug":"consumo-perfila-menor-dinamismo-en-la-recta-final-del-ano","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ferabrajan.com\/portal\/2024\/10\/17\/consumo-perfila-menor-dinamismo-en-la-recta-final-del-ano\/","title":{"rendered":"Consumo perfila\u00a0menor dinamismo en la recta final del a\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Elconsumo privado en M\u00e9xico<\/strong>\u00a0se perfila a una racha de menor dinamismo en el tercer trimestre del a\u00f1o, y los analistas prev\u00e9n que seguir\u00e1 desaceler\u00e1ndose, ante la\u00a0debilidad en el mercado laboral\u00a0<\/strong>y un menor aumento en los\u00a0ingresos de los hogares<\/strong>, principalmente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimaciones delINEGI<\/strong>\u00a0del\u00a0Indicador Oportuno del\u00a0Consumo\u00a0Privado (IOCP)\u00a0<\/strong>apuntan a un crecimiento de 2.7 por ciento anual en agosto y una moderaci\u00f3n de 1.8 por ciento anual en septiembre, seg\u00fan datos desestacionalizados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De concretarse el dato de septiembre ser\u00eda el m\u00e1s bajo en 43 meses, desde febrero del 2021, en medio de la pandemia<\/strong>, cuando se report\u00f3 una contracci\u00f3n<\/strong> de 5.7 por ciento anual, de acuerdo con los registros del Indicador Mensual de Consumo Privado en el Mercado Interior (IMCPMI)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para el tercer trimestre, el\u00a0consumo<\/strong>\u00a0podr\u00eda reportar un crecimiento de 2.6 por ciento anual, que ser\u00eda el m\u00e1s bajo desde inicios del 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El nivel del \u00edndice del IOCP<\/strong> se habr\u00eda ubicado en 112.25 puntos en septiembre, ligeramente por debajo de los 112.35 puntos de agosto, y por encima de los 111.23 puntos que se report\u00f3 en enero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La\u00a0cautela del consumo<\/strong>\u00a0se da en un entorno en el que\u00a0la inflaci\u00f3n<\/strong>\u00a0lig\u00f3 en septiembre dos meses moder\u00e1ndose hasta ubicarse en 4.58 por ciento anual, aunque con la persistencia de los\u00a0servicios<\/strong>\u00a0que marcaron una tasa de 5.10 por ciento anual y lleva dos a\u00f1os por encima de 5.0 por ciento anual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Expectativas desfavorables<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analistas de Citibanamex<\/strong>\u00a0estiman que en lo que resta del a\u00f1o el\u00a0consumo<\/strong> seguir\u00e1 desaceler\u00e1ndose, debido a la\u00a0creciente debilidad\u00a0<\/strong>en el\u00a0mercado laboral<\/strong>, un menor aumento estimado de los\u00a0ingresos de los hogares<\/strong>, un\u00a0menor impulso fiscal\u00a0<\/strong>y\u00a0altas tasas de inter\u00e9s\u00a0<\/strong>reales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economistas de Banco Base<\/strong>\u00a0anticipan que entre los principales riesgos para el\u00a0crecimiento del consumo<\/strong>destacan la\u00a0incertidumbre\u00a0<\/strong>por el nuevo gobierno; la baja\u00a0creaci\u00f3n de empleo<\/strong>\u00a0y\u00a0alta informalidad<\/strong>; que se deteriore el\u00a0poder adquisitivo de las remesas<\/strong>; que se retome la tendencia al alza del porcentaje de\u00a0cartera vencida<\/strong>\u00a0en los\u00a0cr\u00e9ditos al consumo<\/strong>; deterioro en las\u00a0expectativas econ\u00f3micas<\/strong>, y la\u00a0reducci\u00f3n del gasto p\u00fablico<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frente a estos retos, esperan que el\u00a0consumo privado<\/strong>\u00a0muestre un crecimiento este a\u00f1o de 2.7 por ciento anual y en 2025 de 1.2 por ciento. Esto es consistente con la\u00a0expectativa de crecimiento del PIB\u00a0<\/strong>para 2024 de 1.3 por ciento y para 2025 de 0.8 por ciento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El\u00a0mercado laboral<\/strong>\u00a0ha mostrado cierto deterioro. De enero a septiembre se agregaron 456 mil 417\u00a0empleos formales<\/strong>, las menores cifras para un mismo periodo desde la p\u00e9rdida de 719 mil 250 en el 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con miras al 2025, en el que los\u00a0pron\u00f3sticos de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico\u00a0<\/strong>apuntan a una\u00a0mayor desaceleraci\u00f3n<\/strong>, los\u00a0hogares\u00a0<\/strong>pueden seguir con cautela, y aunque los recortes a\u00a0las tasas de inter\u00e9s<\/strong>puedan mantenerse, el nivel seguir\u00e1 siendo restrictivo, al ubicarse en 8.00 por ciento, seg\u00fan las expectativas del mercado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La\u00a0directora de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico de Monex, Janneth Quiroz,<\/strong>\u00a0dijo que se ve un panorama m\u00e1s retador para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o para el\u00a0consumo<\/strong>, primero por la base de comparaci\u00f3n que se observ\u00f3 este a\u00f1o por el\u00a0gasto social<\/strong>y tambi\u00e9n por el\u00a0enfriamiento de la actividad<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con Informaci\u00f3n de: https:\/\/www.elfinanciero.com.mx\/economia\/2024\/10\/17\/consumo-perfila-menor-dinamismo-en-la-recta-final-del-ano\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los analistas prev\u00e9n que seguir\u00e1 desaceler\u00e1ndose, ante la debilidad en el mercado laboral y un menor aumento en los ingresos de los hogares, principalmente.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[52,585],"tags":[542,1927,734,1928],"class_list":["post-65495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nacional","category-principal","tag-compras","tag-consumismo","tag-economia","tag-ingresos"],"yoast_head":"\nConsumo perfila\u00a0menor dinamismo en la recta final del a\u00f1o - Fer Abrajan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Los analistas prev\u00e9n que seguir\u00e1 desaceler\u00e1ndose, ante la debilidad en el mercado laboral y un menor aumento en los ingresos de los hogares, principalmente.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ferabrajan.com\/portal\/2024\/10\/17\/consumo-perfila-menor-dinamismo-en-la-recta-final-del-ano\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Consumo perfila\u00a0menor dinamismo en la recta final del a\u00f1o - 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